A while back, I referenced an article about a “hidden millionaire” and one of her quotes that stuck out to me: “[y]ou can’t build without nuts and bolts”. So as some of you have noticed, I have been talking a look at the more “industrial” companies out there. I already analyzed one of her purchases, Precision Castparts Corp, and today, we’ll be looking at another. Honestly, it’s one of my favorites, and I can’t wait to own it. Behold: Snap-On Incorporated (NYSE:SNA).
Quick Background:
From Scottrade:
Snap-on Incorporated (Snap-on) is a manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, diagnostics, repair information and systems solutions for professional users. Snap-on’s products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostics software, information and management systems, shop equipment and other solutions for vehicle dealerships and repair centers, as well as customers in industries, including aviation, aerospace, agriculture, construction, Government and military, mining, natural resources, power generation and technical education. Snap-on also derives income from various financing programs to facilitate the sales of its products. Snap-on markets its products and brands through a number of distribution sales channels in approximately 130 countries.
SNA was founded in 1920, and is based in Kenosha, Wisconsin. It operates in four major segments: Tools (37% of revenues), Commercial & Industrial (30%), Repair Systems and Information (28%), and Financing (5%). The target market for most of these tools and services are mechanics and auto dealers. Most revenues (66%) come from North America, though the company has exposure to Europe (20% of revenues) and is pushing into Asia (10%). SNA’s competitors include Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Danaher Crop (DHR), and Genuine Parts Co (GPC).
For more basic information, check out the company’s website and the 2013 annual report.
Fun fact: An investment of $10,000 in December 2000 would be worth $66,043.41 today, all dividends reinvested. This yields a annual rate of return of 14.5%. (Source: FAST Graphs)
Investment Criteria:
Here’s our criteria, here’s the US Dividend Champions List, let’s get to it:
- Pays a dividend: Yes
- Has 5+ years of dividend increases: No (4 years)
- Has not frozen dividend for over 8 quarters: No
- Has a Chowder number of 12 or more: No (7.2)
- Has am EPS payout ratio of less than 70%: Yes (25.6%)
- Pays a dividend monthly or quarterly: Yes (Quarterly; February, May, August, November)
- Has an S&P Quality Ranking of ‘A-‘ or better: Yes (A)
- Has generally increasing earnings over the past 10+ years: Yes
- Is fairly valued/undervalued according to the Normal P/E ratio (blue line): No
- Is fairly valued/undervalued according to the Intrinsic P/E ratio (orange line): No
Other Bonus Ratings:
- S&P Capital IQ: 4-star buy
- Scale is 1-5, 1 being ‘strong sell’, 5 being ‘strong buy’
- Thompson Reuters StockReport: 9 (optimized score of 7)
- Scale is 1-10, 10 being best, 1 being worst
- Optimized scores weight insider trading and price momentum heavier than other criteria
- Value Line: 2 for safety; 2 for timeliness
- Scale is 1-5, 1 being best, 5 being worst
Financial Overview:
SNA’s current dividend yield is unimpressive at 1.55%; the stock pays out $2.12 annually. The company’s dividend history is interesting. At first glance, it’s not a true dividend growth stock like Colgate-Palmolive (CL) or GPC, The company will gladly freeze its dividend, and has regularly done so. Just recently, the dividend was frozen from 2000-2002, 2002-2005, 2005-2007, and 2007-2010. 4 increases in 10 years is kind of sad, isn’t it? Not so much, when you realize the company has not cut or suspended its dividend since 1939. The company seems to take the same stance as Disney (DIS), in that the will not increase the dividend if they feel it would hurt them financially, but will resume it when earning improve. The company doesn’t seem to be interested in share repurchases, however. The shares outstanding count has stayed relatively constant since 2010, at about 58 million. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.4, which is solid for an industrial company, and debt levels do not threaten the dividend in any significant way. The company’s 10-K confirms this: “Snap-on believes that its cash generated from operations, available cash on hand and funds available from its credit facilities will be sufficient to pay dividends in 2014.” Finally, the company split 3:2 in 1996.
SNA’s P/E ratio is currently 20.2, and the one year forward P/E ratio is 17.9, suggesting both an increase in earnings and a possible slight decrease in price. SNA’s gross, operating, and net profit margins are all better than its competitors: 48.36% vs 43.52%, 20.32% vs 13.88%, and 12.74% vs 9.91%. Finally, according to Morningstar, the economic moat is “narrow” and management is “standard”.
For the next 5 years, SNA’s earning are expected to grow 12.5%, while the estimated total return is half that, at 6.9%. For comparison, SWK’s 5 year ETR is 10.0%, DHR’s is 3.1%, and GPC’s is 2.6%. Based on what I see, the ETR is low for most of these companies not so much because their earnings or dividends will plummet, but because each stock appears severely overvalued. As we all know, what comes up must come down, so it stands to reason that the overvaluation will correct in time. Until then, investors in these companies will likely see subpar returns going forward.
Risk Factors:
One of the company’s most important attributes is its reputation for quality and innovation. Dealers expect that SNA’s tools will be high-quality and will get the job done. Obviously, if SNA gives customers a reason to distrust their tools, then their reputation is shot, and their competitive advantage will erode quickly. Since SNA also uses a independent dealer/franchisee model (where each salesman is given a set sales route and a mobile van with SNA’s tool product lines), there is a risk of franchisee turnover, wasted resources, and undercovered sales routes. Materials cost risk is always a concern; if steel prices spike, margins will decrease. The finance arm can cause issues, though SNA has definitely made their loan portfolio more conservative and “safe” in recent years.
The company isn’t covered much on SeekingAlpha, but the sentiment is solidly bullish (see here and here).
Final conclusion:
As of right now, SNA does not meet my criteria. I am certainly willing to give SNA a pass on the dividend metrics, considering the company’s commitment to dividend security, regardless of annual dividend increases. However, the company is just too overvalued at this time. I expect the company to do very well over the long term, but at this point, investors have bid the stock up to a level I’m not comfortable with. Even though I am not a buyer now, I will definitely keep an eye on this company. I can safely say that I will be a buyer on any decent dips. After Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Altria (MO), SNA is my favorite company I don’t yet own, and I hope to amass a solid position before retiring.
What do you think? Does SNA make the cut for your portfolio? Also, how can I improve future analyses?
Disclosure: None
All data is accurate as of market close, 11/24/2014. My stock analysis archive page has been updated accordingly. Please read my disclaimer here before choosing to invest. Company logo image source is available here. Data source is FAST Graphs, David Fish’s US Dividend Champions List, or company materials, unless otherwise indicated.
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